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Dec 13, 2022

Economic outlook bleak despite 0.5% rise in GDP

Monthly GDP grew by around 0.5% in October 2022, following 0.6% drop in September, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

However, despite this recovery, the outlook for the UK economy remains bleak, shrinking by 0.3% in the three months to October.

The rise in GDP in October was largely affected by the additional bank holiday for Queen Elizabeth II's state funeral on 19 September, when many businesses closed their doors or altered their operating hours.

As the bank holiday was a one-off event, its economic impact was not included in the usual seasonal adjustments of September's data.

October saw the services sector grow by 0.6% after falling by 0.8% in September, largely driven by a 1.9% rise in the wholesale and retail industry.

Meanwhile, output in consumer-facing services grew by 1.2% in October, after falling in both August and September.

Commenting on the figures, economics director at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) Suren Thiru said:

"October's rebound is a false dawn for the economy, as it mostly reflects the favourable comparison with September.

"The positive start to the fourth quarter may not prevent recession with the growing squeeze on incomes likely to drive falls in GDP in November and December."

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